Health Monitor

The Health Monitor provides real-time surveillance of your strategies' health. While the Health Score on the Strategy Analyzer gives a snapshot, the Health Monitor tracks changes over time and alerts you to degradation. For context on why health monitoring matters, see Why Strategies Fail — Regime Dependency.

Traffic Light System

Each strategy gets a traffic light status based on its Health Score:

LightScoreMeaningAction
Green80+Performing as expected or betterContinue trading
Cyan60–79Slight drift from baselineMonitor regularly
Orange40–59Notable degradationReduce exposure, investigate
Red30–39Significant degradationMinimal exposure
Dark Red< 30Severe degradationStop trading

IS/OOS Comparison Tables

The Health Monitor splits your trade history into In-Sample (historical baseline) and Out-of-Sample (recent performance) periods, then measures divergence across key metrics. For each strategy, it shows side-by-side IS vs. OOS metrics:

MetricIS (Baseline)OOS (Recent)Divergence
Win Rate62.4%58.1%-6.9%
Avg Trade$245$198-19.2%
Sharpe Ratio1.821.45-20.3%
R-Expectancy0.38R0.29R-23.7%
Max DD %18.5%22.1%+19.5%
Time Underwater32%41%+28.1%

Example data — negative divergence in returns metrics and positive divergence in risk metrics both indicate degradation.

Charts

Rolling Sharpe Ratio

Track the Sharpe Ratio over rolling windows to see if risk-adjusted returns are trending down.

Win Rate Divergence

Compare the rolling win rate against the historical average. A persistent drop below baseline signals degradation.

Trade P&L Scatter

Individual trade results plotted over time. Look for clustering of losses in recent periods.

Alert System

The Health Monitor generates alerts when:

  • Health Score drops below a threshold
  • A circuit breaker triggers (e.g., recent drawdown exceeds 50%)
  • Win rate collapses to less than half the historical rate
  • Consecutive loss streak exceeds the historical maximum

Info

The Health Monitor is most useful for strategies you're actively trading. Import fresh trades periodically and check if the scores hold up. A strategy that looked great during backtesting may degrade when market conditions change.

Best Practices

  1. Review weekly — Check traffic lights for all active strategies
  2. Investigate orange — Don't wait for red; investigate caution signals early
  3. Compare IS/OOS — Look at which specific metrics are degrading
  4. Act on red — When a strategy hits red, reduce exposure or stop trading entirely. Use the IS/OOS comparison to understand which metrics degraded and whether the issue is temporary (a losing streak) or structural (a broken edge)

Tip

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