Health Monitor
The Health Monitor provides real-time surveillance of your strategies' health. While the Health Score on the Strategy Analyzer gives a snapshot, the Health Monitor tracks changes over time and alerts you to degradation. For context on why health monitoring matters, see Why Strategies Fail — Regime Dependency.
Traffic Light System
Each strategy gets a traffic light status based on its Health Score:
| Light | Score | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green | 80+ | Performing as expected or better | Continue trading |
| Cyan | 60–79 | Slight drift from baseline | Monitor regularly |
| Orange | 40–59 | Notable degradation | Reduce exposure, investigate |
| Red | 30–39 | Significant degradation | Minimal exposure |
| Dark Red | < 30 | Severe degradation | Stop trading |
IS/OOS Comparison Tables
The Health Monitor splits your trade history into In-Sample (historical baseline) and Out-of-Sample (recent performance) periods, then measures divergence across key metrics. For each strategy, it shows side-by-side IS vs. OOS metrics:
| Metric | IS (Baseline) | OOS (Recent) | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 62.4% | 58.1% | -6.9% |
| Avg Trade | $245 | $198 | -19.2% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.82 | 1.45 | -20.3% |
| R-Expectancy | 0.38R | 0.29R | -23.7% |
| Max DD % | 18.5% | 22.1% | +19.5% |
| Time Underwater | 32% | 41% | +28.1% |
Example data — negative divergence in returns metrics and positive divergence in risk metrics both indicate degradation.
Charts
Rolling Sharpe Ratio
Track the Sharpe Ratio over rolling windows to see if risk-adjusted returns are trending down.
Win Rate Divergence
Compare the rolling win rate against the historical average. A persistent drop below baseline signals degradation.
Trade P&L Scatter
Individual trade results plotted over time. Look for clustering of losses in recent periods.
Alert System
The Health Monitor generates alerts when:
- Health Score drops below a threshold
- A circuit breaker triggers (e.g., recent drawdown exceeds 50%)
- Win rate collapses to less than half the historical rate
- Consecutive loss streak exceeds the historical maximum
Info
The Health Monitor is most useful for strategies you're actively trading. Import fresh trades periodically and check if the scores hold up. A strategy that looked great during backtesting may degrade when market conditions change.
Best Practices
- Review weekly — Check traffic lights for all active strategies
- Investigate orange — Don't wait for red; investigate caution signals early
- Compare IS/OOS — Look at which specific metrics are degrading
- Act on red — When a strategy hits red, reduce exposure or stop trading entirely. Use the IS/OOS comparison to understand which metrics degraded and whether the issue is temporary (a losing streak) or structural (a broken edge)
Tip
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