Confidence Score
The Confidence Score (0–100) measures whether your strategy's results are statistically meaningful or possibly due to luck. A strategy might look profitable, but with too few trades or too much variation, you can't trust the results.
Warning
Minimum trade requirement: The Confidence Score requires a minimum number of trades. Below this threshold, the score is automatically set to 0. This is the most common reason for a low CSI.
How It Works
The Confidence Score evaluates multiple weighted metrics that capture different dimensions of statistical reliability. Each metric is normalized to a 0–100 scale and combined into the final score.
The top contributing factors include:
- SQN (System Quality Number) — Measures overall system quality based on R-multiples. Higher SQN means more consistent positive expectancy.
- Statistical Significance — How confident we are that the strategy's edge is real and not due to random chance.
- Sample Size — Whether the strategy has enough trades for reliable statistical analysis. More trades = more trustworthy results.
What Makes a Good Confidence Score
| Score Range | What It Means |
|---|---|
| 80–100 | Highly reliable — strong statistical evidence the edge is real |
| 60–79 | Good confidence — results are likely meaningful with minor uncertainty |
| 40–59 | Moderate confidence — more trades or consistency needed |
| 0–39 | Low confidence — results may be due to luck or insufficient data |
How to Improve
- Low SQN? Improve R-expectancy (better risk/reward ratio per trade)
- Low Z-Score? Need more trades or more consistent P&L per trade
- Low Sample Size? Wait for more trades before evaluating — or run Monte Carlo simulation to estimate reliability with your current sample size
- Low Stability? Strategy may be regime-dependent — works in some conditions but not others
For context on why low confidence is the most common reason strategies fail live, see Why Strategies Fail — Insufficient Sample Size.
Tip
Low Confidence Score is the most common reason for a low CSI — and the easiest to misread. More trades fix it. See SQN and sample size explained.
Tip
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