Confidence Score
The Confidence Score (0–100) measures whether your strategy's results are statistically meaningful or possibly due to luck. A strategy might look profitable, but with too few trades or too much variation, you can't trust the results.
Warning
Minimum trade requirement: The Confidence Score requires a minimum number of trades. Below this threshold, the score is automatically set to 0. This is the most common reason for a low CSI.
How It Works
The Confidence Score evaluates multiple proprietary measures of statistical reliability and combines them into a single 0–100 number. In plain terms, it answers three questions:
- Is there enough evidence? A handful of trades proves nothing, no matter how good they look. The more trades a strategy has, the more trustworthy its statistics become.
- Is the edge real or lucky? Random trading produces winning streaks too. The score assesses how unlikely it is that your results came from chance alone.
- Is performance consistent? A strategy that only worked during one lucky stretch is less reliable than one whose edge shows up steadily across its whole history.
The exact metrics, weights, and thresholds inside the score are proprietary — like a credit score, you see the result and what drives it directionally, not the internal formula.
What Makes a Good Confidence Score
| Score Range | What It Means |
|---|---|
| 80–100 | Highly reliable — strong statistical evidence the edge is real |
| 60–79 | Good confidence — results are likely meaningful with minor uncertainty |
| 40–59 | Moderate confidence — more trades or consistency needed |
| 0–39 | Low confidence — results may be due to luck or insufficient data |
How to Improve
- Too few trades? This is the #1 cause. Extend your backtest period, or test on more markets. There is no shortcut — statistical confidence requires evidence, and evidence means trades.
- Erratic results? If your strategy's edge appears and disappears across its history, confidence drops. Look at Rolling Returns in the Quality Report to see whether the edge is steady or concentrated in one period.
- A few huge winners carrying everything? If removing your best handful of trades would erase the profit, the results are fragile. Check outlier dependency in the Advanced metrics.
- Want to quantify the uncertainty? Run a Monte Carlo simulation — it directly tests how much your results could vary with the sample you have.
For context on why low confidence is the most common reason strategies fail live, see Why Strategies Fail — Insufficient Sample Size.
Tip
Low Confidence Score is the most common reason for a low CSI — and the easiest to misread. It doesn't mean your strategy is bad; it means there isn't enough evidence yet to know. More trades fix it.
Tip
Ready to check your strategy's statistical confidence? Start free trial — no credit card required.