Time Analysis
Time metrics describe how long trades last, how often they occur, and the overall backtest period.
Quick Reference
| Metric | Formula | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Bars | Average bars_in_trade across all trades | bars |
| Avg Win Bars | Average bars for winning trades | bars |
| Avg Loss Bars | Average bars for losing trades | bars |
| Backtest Years | (Last Trade - First Trade) / 365.25 | years |
| Trades Per Year | Total Trades / Backtest Years | count/yr |
| Avg Trade Duration | Mean trade duration | hours |
| Median Trade Duration | Median trade duration | hours |
| Avg Time Between Trades | Mean gap between consecutive trades | hours |
| Exposure % | (Time in market, overlaps counted once / Total time) × 100 | % |
Key Metrics Explained
Trades Per Year
How frequently the strategy trades. This directly affects the Confidence Score — higher trade frequency produces more data points and more reliable statistics.
| Frequency | What it means for your Confidence Score |
|---|---|
| High | Enough trades each year that annual statistics settle down. The strongest case. |
| Moderate | Workable, but a single unusual year still carries real weight. |
| Low | Thin annual samples — treat year-to-year differences with caution. |
| Very low | Too few trades per year for annual statistics to mean much on their own. |
Confidence rises smoothly with trade frequency rather than stepping at fixed cutoffs, so there is no single number to aim for. More trades per year, over more years, is always better evidence.
Avg Win Bars vs. Avg Loss Bars
Compare how long winning trades last vs. losing trades:
- Winners last longer: Typical of trend-following strategies that let profits run
- Losers last longer: May indicate poor stop-loss management — losing positions are held too long
- Similar duration: Characteristic of mean-reversion or time-based exit strategies
Exposure %
What percentage of total time your capital is deployed in trades. A 30% exposure means your money is at risk 30% of the time.
Info
Higher exposure doesn't necessarily mean better. The Efficiency Ratio (CAGR / Exposure %) measures return per unit of time in the market. A strategy earning 15% with 20% exposure is more efficient than one earning 20% with 80% exposure.
Backtest Years
The total length of the backtest period. Longer backtests generally produce more reliable statistics, especially for strategies with low trade frequency.
Tip
Low trade frequency hurts your Confidence Score. If your strategy only trades a handful of times a year, treat every result with extra caution — there isn't enough data in any single year for the statistics to settle.
Tip
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